A Glimpse of what the Park administration is thinking about the North Korean contingency


Yoo Seong-ok, the president of the Institute for National Security Strategy gave an interview to Chosun Ilbo. As you are probably aware of, INSS is an NIS research center. Yoo also worked as a North Korea analyst at the National Intelligence Service for 26 years. So it wouldn’t be far-fetching to assume his opinion gives us at least a glimpse of what the Park administration is thinking about the frequently-suggested North Korean contingency:

“The word is about 7,000 were purged after the execution of Jang Song Thaek. On the contrary to a seeming stability, the Kim Jong Un regime paralysed its self-purification ability due to its extreme reign of terror. Its internal wound is getting more serious.”

And his solution to the contingency:

“Of higher chance, however, is a coup by someone among the leadership who’s close to Kim Jong Un. In the case of contingency, we should fly massive [relief] goods into the North in order to prevent a large-scale defection. And turn the new North Korean regime into a pro-South one so we can have a reconciliation, exchange and cooperation in a true sense then proceed to a gradual reunification.”

Building a provisional government of DPRK by defecting Kim Jong Nam to the U.S. was a joint U.S.-ROK intel ops plan which was later scrapped, according to last December’s report of Donga Ilbo. Long before this utterly absurd plan, one of my sources notified me that the NIS had been planning, probably at working-level, to build something like it in cooperation with China. ((I know what you are thinking: did they really think China would cooperate on something like it? Yes, they were that much clueless, I would say! In my understanding and hearabouts, their awareness on the state of international affairs hasn’t gotten over cold war mindset.))

Gradually I see more of loopholes from the Park administration’s theory of North Korean contingency rather than from the stability of the North Korean regime. Its view on North Korea seems to be based on insufficient evidence, wishful thinking.

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