U.S. Conservative think tanks behind the North Korean collapse theory?


Weeks ago, I was wondering what lies behind Park administration’s (seemingly wishful) suggestion of North Korean contingency. My source in the ROK intelligence community told me that he is not personally aware of any indications of the contingency but there are some analysts who think there is something going on in North Korea. Exactly what made the President and high-ranking officials of the administration think of the contingency is yet clear.

However, this week’s issue of Sisa IN suggests unexpected sources of the North Korean collapse theory: U.S. think tanks. Nam Mun-hee, veteran NK journalist of the South Korean weekly magazine, quotes a unnamed expert on the U.S. who thinks U.S. conservative think tanks’ reports are behind the recent inception of the North Korean collapse theory:

“[They] were keeping an eye of dissidents in North Korea before Jang Song Thaek’s purge. After the purge, these think tanks seemed to be confident of substance of dissidents in the party, the administration and the military. They think a contingency can break out if the dissidents cooperate with a pro-China group among the power elite.”

CSIS, Heritage Foundation and RAND Corporation were counted in Nam’s list of the conservative think tanks.

Nam also wrote these think tanks has affected the direction of North Korea policy of  the U.S. and South Korea:

North Korea policy of the U.S. used to focus on strengthening ROK-U.S. alliance and military pressure. However, recently it is said to be leaning towards empowering dissidents in North Korea. Though it is not known in detail, the U.S. and South Korea’s response to North Korea’s series of offers is said to be on the same page with this consideration [empowering the dissidents].

In my reading of Nam’s previous reports, he doesn’t seem to be so sure about it. But since there seems to be no (at least by now) direct indication of contingency in North Korea, Nam’s newest report sheds some lights on the mystery.

1 comment

Leave a Reply